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Copyright © 2005 University of Canberra

Updated February 9, 2007

Centre Stage:
National Centre for Social and Economic Modelling (NATSEM)

natsem.canberra.edu.au

What do you do?

We are a world leader in the development of microsimulation models and techniques and in the analysis of microdata. These models are computer-based tools, capable of simulating the effects of policy and other changes on specific sectors of the community, down to the level of individual families.

Why is it important?

Our models provide policy makers with good estimates of the impact of possible policy changes that they are considering -- who will win, who will lose, and by how much. The models allow policy makers to test the distributional impacts upon families and individuals of possible changes in such programs as income tax or social security before reaching final decisions.

What's new?

Our new spatialMSM system is being used to provide estimates of poverty, housing affordability, and other household characteristics at the local level. It can also be used to predict the impact upon suburbs across Australia of policy changes, such as income tax cuts or changes in housing assistance. This is an amazingly powerful tool which is at the international leading edge.

We are also developing new microsimulation models of health, aged care and housing, moving beyond the tax and social security programs which have been the traditional focus of microsimulation models across the world.

Another exciting project is the development of the APPSIM microsimulation model, with 13 government agencies as industry partners and funding from the Australian Research Council. This model will ultimately be used to predict our likely future over the next 50 years as Australia's population ages. It will look at such questions as the likely future tax burdens to be placed on generations X and Y -- and what will happen if the baby boom generation work for longer than they currently hope to or save harder for their imminent retirement than they currently are.