NATSEM's health and care services microsimulation models are providing those engaged in program planning and evaluation with greatly improved decision-support tools.
The Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme model, developed in partnership with Medicines Australia, estimates the current and future distributional impact and cost of the existing PBS scheme and possible changes to that scheme.
A detailed NSW hospitals utilisation and cost projection model has been developed in partnership with NSW Health, the Health Insurance Commission and the Productivity Commission. The model allows assessment of the current and future socio-economic characteristics of NSW hospital users by region - and includes the capacity to project private health insurance membership and coverage and the impact upon hospital usage.
A dynamic cost-benefit model of diabetes prevention and care has been completed with the Diabetes Centre at the Prince of Wales Hospital. This model can be used to assess the relative cost-effectiveness of various diabetes treatment and prevention strategies.
Other recent work includes assessment of policy options for the funding of new high cost biotechnology and other innovative targeted therapies under the PBS; evaluating the costs and funding of public hospitals in the ACT; review of the WHO 'index of fairness of financial contributions to health' for Australia's health care system; measuring geographical accessibility to hospital services for New South Wales' rural and remote population; the development of a food price subsidisation scheme for the Anangu Pitjantjatjara Lands; construction of a database imputing socio-economic characteristics onto Medicare administrative data with the Department of Health and Ageing; and the addition of disability and health status to NATSEM's DYNAMOD population forecasting model.
As the issues associated with the ageing of the population become more urgent, NATSEM is extending its regional and forecasting models to add the need for and the cost of care services and informal care. Apart from the partners mentioned above, recent clients include major pharmaceutical companies, The Canberra Hospital, and the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare.
Contact: Laurie Brown
Phone: +61 2 6201 2770
Email: laurie.brown@natsem.canberra.edu.au
