DYNAMOD is a dynamic microsimulation model of the Australian population developed at the National Centre for Social and Economic Modelling (NATSEM). The model is able to project the Australian population and their characteristics out to 2050.
The NATSEM model begins with a confidentialised micro data file taken from the 1986 Australian Bureau of Statistics Census (a one per cent sample file). Onto the individuals on this file are imputed additional characteristics (such as more detail on the level and type of education being undertaken, the state in which the person lives, the value of the family home, etc). The result is a base population of 150,000 synthetic individuals with over 80 characteristics each. The model takes this base population and simulates the events that occur in each individual's life, from 1986 onwards, by stepping month-by-month through time until the middle of the 21st century. As the individuals progress through life, they experience a range of life events, in line with Australian data about the probabilities of those events happening to real Australians. The life events include death; fertility; couple formation and dissolution; emigration and immigration; primary, secondary and tertiary education; labour force changes (full and part-time employment, unemployment and NILF), disability onset and recovery, earning income, accumulating or diminishing wealth and superannuation, taxation and government cash benefits.
The dynamic nature of the model allows it to capture changes in demographics and behaviour over time, such as an ageing population or changing fertility rates. This makes it ideal for modelling the distribution of income and assets at different times and for different phases of people's lives; the impact of an ageing population; and the adequacy of future retirement incomes.
Contact: Ann Harding
Phone: +61 2 6201 2764
