Economic Modelling of the Prevention of Type 2 Diabetes in Australia
A team of researchers led by Associate Professor Laurie Brown recently completed the development of a model that projects the number of Australians that will have Type 2 diabetes or pre-diabetes over a 45 year period and the potential effect of diabetes prevention programs aimed at reducing the prevalence of this disorder.
The Diabetes Model is a diabetes prevention and economics outcomes model. It is a complex cell based population projections model that is designed to generate a time-series of cross-sectional prevalence based ‘snap shots' of the adult Australian population over the simulation period.
The Diabetes Model was developed for the Diabetes Prevention Working Party (DPWP) of the National Public Health Partnership (NPHP). Our research partners included Professor Paul Zimmet and Associate Professor Jonathon Shaw both from the International Diabetes Institute, and Professor Philip Clarke from the University of Sydney.
The number of adult Australians with Type 2 diabetes is estimated to increase 2-3 fold over the next 30-40 years. The Diabetes Model simulates current trends in the number of adult Australians that have risk factors associated with Type 2 diabetes such as: being overweight, being physically inactive, having high blood pressure or cholesterol levels or being a smoker, to estimate the growing number of cases of both pre-diabetes and Type 2 diabetes. A key feature of the Model is that the cost and attributable effect of hypothetical prevention programs can be modelled over the 45 year simulation period. NATSEM's research included a detailed analysis of the epidemiological and economic benefits associated with the program.
Diabetes is now high on the health and human capital policy agendas. At the July 2006 Council of Australian Governments' meeting diabetes was recognised as ‘a significant area of national interest'. The Commonwealth and State and Territory leaders, through COAG, listed diabetes as one of four initial priority areas to be the subject of specific reform proposals as the first part of the COAG Human Capital reforms. The aim is to improve health outcomes focusing initially on diabetes and building on the national Chronic Disease Strategy and the Australian Better Health Initiative.
Contact: Laurie Brown
Phone: +61 2 6201 2770
Email: laurie.brown@natsem.canberra.edu.au
