The APPSIM Project
Australia’s population is rapidly ageing. The proportion aged 65+ is projected to increase from 15% now to 35% over the next 40 years. This population ageing is expected to have major consequences for Australian society and its economy – and for the Commonwealth Government’s budget.
Treasury’s 2002 InterGenerational Report suggested — assuming current policy settings — there would be a shortfall between Commonwealth government revenue and outlays of 5% of GDP by 2042. In today’s dollars, this would translate into a budget deficit of about $40 billion.
This Australian Research Council Linkage project (LP0562493), ‘Assessing the Social and Fiscal Policy Implications of an Ageing Population’ is a five year collaboration between NATSEM, the University of Canberra, two international researchers and 13 industry partners. Its aim is to develop a model that will give the Commonwealth Government the capacity to assess the future distributional and revenue consequences of changes in tax and outlay programs. The model is called APPSIM – Australian Population and Policy Simulator.
